Morocco's High Commission for Planning (HCP) published its October economic outlook note on 14 October. It estimates growth of 4.1% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, after 4% in the second quarter, and forecasts 4.7% for the fourth quarter in its central scenario. If the energy shock eases, HCP sees growth closer to 5.3%.
Investment remains an important driver. Gross fixed capital formation rose 10.8% in the first quarter and 6.8% in the second. HCP estimates 6.2% for the third quarter and expects 6.8% in the fourth, supported by large infrastructure projects. The note links the slowdown in the second quarter partly to higher production costs and calmer housing demand.
Households are holding up. Consumption is estimated to grow 4.1% in the third quarter and 4.3% in the fourth, while income from employment rose 4% in the second quarter. Inflation is estimated at only 0.3% in the third quarter, with food prices down 3.6% and non-food prices up 2.4%. Household debt was 4.5% higher at the end of June.
Bank Al-Maghrib has kept its policy rate at 2.25% for six consecutive quarters, and bank claims on the economy rose 11.1% year on year in the third quarter. According to the note, the dirham lost 2.2% against the euro and 3.8% against the dollar. For long-term buyers, stable rates, low inflation and steady household spending form a calm backdrop, and quieter housing demand can mean more choice and more room to negotiate.
