Dubai property market now: the figures for autumn 2026

Since the Iran war began in late February 2026, buyers have become more cautious. Fewer homes are being sold, rents are falling in several areas and fewer new projects are being launched.

At the same time the market has not stopped: thousands of transactions are still registered every month, mortgage numbers are growing and more rental contracts are being signed than a year ago. This page shows measured figures with sources, no forecasts.

An overview by W Capital based on Dubai Land Department (DLD) data puts sales value from 1 January to 29 September 2026 at more than AED 380 billion, across over 123,000 transactions. The same period of 2025 saw AED 495.8 billion over 157,306 transactions.

Consultancy Cavendish Maxwell counted about 34,000 residential transactions worth around AED 72.6 billion in the third quarter of 2026. That is 38% fewer deals and 47% less value than a year earlier.

Off-plan remained dominant, with 65% of sales value and 72% of purchases. The firm notes that quarterly figures include earlier purchases registered later, so part of the decline is only showing up now.

Using DLD data, S&P Global Ratings calculates an average of 12,644 sale transactions a month from March to September, against 17,198 in January and February: a 26% drop.

There is no single official price index. Based on industry reports, S&P estimates that prices fell 5% to 15% between the end of 2025 and September 2026. The fall differs by area and property type.

Savills reports that apartment rents in the third quarter were lower than a year earlier in areas including Dubai Marina (-12.8%), Business Bay (-12.2%) and JVC (-10.4%). The number of rental transactions rose to 181,900.

About 26,500 homes were handed over in the first half of 2026. According to Savills, more than 525,000 units are scheduled for 2027 to 2030. New launches in the first nine months were about 64% lower than a year earlier.

Preliminary figures from the statistics authority FCSC show the UAE's real economy grew 0.4% in the first half of 2026. The non-oil economy grew 1.8% and real estate activities 2.3%.

In the second quarter the economy shrank 2.1% year on year, mainly due to tourism, transport and trade. A revision is due in the first quarter of 2027.

A cooling market sounds negative, but for buyers with a long-term plan it has real advantages. After a year in which projects sold out within days, there is now more choice, more time to compare calmly and more room for a proper conversation with the seller or developer. Buyers who step in after prices have eased also start from a lower level than buyers a year ago.

Underlying demand remains strong. Rental transactions rose to 181,900 in the third quarter, mortgage registrations rose 14% and real estate activity kept growing in a difficult half year. With far fewer new projects being launched, supply over the coming years is also growing more slowly than expected earlier. Dubai has been through quieter periods before, after which the market picked up again. That is no guarantee for the future, but it shows that a dip can be a moment for a patient buyer to step in with a clear view.

Sources measure different things: DLD totals include land and whole buildings, while Cavendish Maxwell counts residential sales only. Compare figures from the same source only. You can look up raw transactions by area yourself in DLD's real estate data.

These figures say nothing about your own situation, and this is not advice to buy or to wait. In my conversations I always start with your goal and budget, not with the headlines. This page will be updated when new quarterly figures are published.